Welcome to the fifteenth edition of the Climate and Health Outlook from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Climate Change and Health Equity (OCCHE). The Climate and Health Outlook is an effort to inform health professionals and the public on how our health may be affected in the coming months by climate events and provide resources to take proactive action. This webpage includes additional resources and information excluded from the PDF summary, including regional prospective forecasts.
Download the Climate and Health Outlook for October 2023
Visit the Climate and Health Outlook Portal for County-Level Data
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![NCA Region Map](https://public3.pagefreezer.com:443/content/HHS.gov/17-10-2023T05:13/https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/nca-region-map.jpg)
Image source: https://scenarios.globalchange.gov/regions_nca4
U.S. Seasonal Forecast for Health: October 2023
Regional health forecasts for hurricane, wildfire, and drought
Alaska: Alaska is favored to remain drought-free.
Northwest: Drought is favored to persist across most of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, with expansion in central-eastern Washington.
Southwest: Drought is favored to persist across most of New Mexico and Arizona into parts of Colorado, Nevada, and Utah, with improvement and removal forecasted for eastern New Mexico. Below normal significant wildland fire* potential is forecast across southern and central California coast.
Hawai’i and Pacific Islands: The central Pacific is forecast to experience an above-average hurricane season. Drought persistence and expansion is forecast across the entirety of the Hawai’ian Islands. Above normal significant wildland fire is forecast for the Islands of Hawai’i.
Northern Great Plains: Drought persistence is favored across northern Montana, North Dakota, and eastern South Dakota and Nebraska with improvement and removal forecast for northeastern North Dakota and central Nebraska.
Southern Great Plains: Drought improvement and removal is forecast for much of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, with persistence forecast for the far eastern and western portions of Texas along with southeastern Oklahoma and northeastern Kansas.
Midwest: Drought is favored to persist across most of Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Indiana along with parts of Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. Drought improvement and removal is favored for northwestern Minnesota.
Southeast: The Atlantic basin is forecast to have an above-normal hurricane season. Drought is favored to persist across most of Louisiana and Mississippi along with parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and northern Virginia with areas of expansion in Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina. Drought improvement and removal is likely for parts of the western Florida Peninsula. Above normal significant wildland fire potential is forecast for Alabama, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, much of Tennessee, and parts of eastern Arkansas and western Virginia.
Northeast: Most of the Northeast is forecasted to remain drought-free, except for small portions of Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and western New York where drought is favored to persist.
Caribbean: The Atlantic basin is forecast to have an above-normal hurricane season. Drought removal is likely in Puerto Rico and improvement/removal is likely for the U.S. Virgin Islands.
*Smoke from wildfires can impact health hundreds of miles from site of the fire.
Heat forecasts are drawn from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Heat and Health Tracker and are only available for the contiguous United States. Drought forecasts are drawn from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Integrated Drought Information System, wildfire forecasts from the National Interagency Coordination Center, and hurricane forecasts from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
You can learn more about climate hazards, the ways they impact health, and resources to protect yourself and your community here:
- Drought
- Extreme Heat
- Hurricane
- Wildfire
- Lyme and Other Tickborne Diseases
- West Nile Virus and Other Mosquito-Borne Diseases
- Pollen
- Spring Flooding
You can also check our 2022 Retrospective: Heat, Drought, and Wildfire.
Previous editions of the Climate and Health Outlook are also available.
Thank you to the partners who provide invaluable information, expertise, and data for the Climate and Health Outlook series, including the Administration for Children and Families; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health; Department of Agriculture; Environmental Protection Agency; the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, National Integrated Drought Information System, National Integrated Heat Health Information System, and National Water Center; National Interagency Fire Center; Bureau of Land Management; Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration; United States Geological Survey; the California Air Resources Board; the Oregon Health Authority; the San Mateo County Health Department; the USA National Phenology Network; Atlanta Allergy & Asthma; American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology; the Region 2 Pediatric Environmental Health Specialty Unit; and the California Department of Public Health.